The most recent weekly college basketball AP Top 25 Poll (1-18-08) and the most recent Sagarin Ratings (1-17-08) provide some clues about which teams are likely overrated.
Sagarin’s Ratings give you a bird’s-eye view of identifying teams that have played a bunch of weak sisters to build up an impressive, early season won-loss record and now must face the music of playing in league competition.
You can learn a lot by noting the strength of schedule for top-rated teams. My method is to divide the 341 total Division 1 teams in 5 categories (literally, 340 divided by 5 equals 68). This creates a Top 20% (1-68), 2nd Tier (69-136), 3rd Tier (137-204), 4th Tier (205 to 272) and the Bottom 20% (273-340).
The Top 20% is top-flight competition. I think of the next 3 tiers as 2nd string, 3rd string and 4th string competition. The 20% at the bottom I consider bottom dwellers who feed on the crumbs that fall off of the tiers above.
Here are 4 teams in the AP Top 25 Poll that are probably overrated and will prove it in the near future: No. 25 Villanova, No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 10 Texas A&M and No. 21 Miami (FL). These 4 are given a much higher ranking in the AP Poll than by Sagarin is his ratings.
The most exaggerated example is No. 25-ranked Villanova that is rated 57th by Sagarin. Villanova sports an impressive 12-3 record but its strength of schedule (SOS) is 240. In other words, Villanova earned its record playing 4th-tier (or 4th-string) competition.
Vanderbilt is ranked 16th by the AP and rated 36th by Sagarin. Vandy has a 12-3 record but its SOS is 164 because of playing 3rd-tier (3rd-string) competition.
Texas A&M is ranked 10th by the AP and rated 24th by Sagarin. A&M has a 14-2 mark but its SOS is 290 because of playing among the bottom 20% of competition. Texas A&M, true to my prediction, just got upset by none other than Bob Knight and his Texas Tech Red Raiders, 68-53. The victory was Knight’s 900th. Knight is No. 1 on the NCAA Division 1 career wins list.
Texas Tech is rated 80th by Sagarin with a 9-6 record but its SOS is 104 because of playing 2nd-tier (2nd-string) competition. The Red Raiders clearly played much better competition before meeting the Texas A&M Aggies and it showed.
Miami (FL) is ranked 21st by the AP and rated 33rd by Sagarin. Miami has a 13-2 mark but its SOS is 281 because of playing among the bottom 20% of competition. You get the picture.
Here is another outstanding example from the Pac-10 Conference. Oregon is not ranked in the AP Top 25 but is rated 31st by Sagarin with a 12-5 record and its SOS is 24 because of playing top-flight competition.
Washington is not ranked in the Top 25 but is rated 65th by Sagarin with a 10-7 record and its SOS is 50 because of playing top-flight competition. Washington just beat Oregon 78-70 at home. Notice that both teams are rated among the Top 20% of teams and are used to playing top-flight competition.
Here is what will not work 99% of the time. North Carolina A&T is rated 268th by Sagarin with a 2-9 record and an eye-popping SOS of 2. They have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country so far this season, but will not be upsetting anyone soon because they are rated too low to begin with, only 5 spots from being in the bottom 20% nationally.
Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley
Ed Bagley’s Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate, delight and motivate you the reader.
Read my articles on “The Sagarin Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them”, “How to Predict When Teams Are Overrated and Due for an Unexpected Loss”, my 14 consecutive weekly wrap-up articles on the 2007 College Football Season, and my 32-game bowl season wrap-up series. The bowl wrap-up is strictly for hard core football junkies; it goes on for 17 pages.
Find my Blog at:
http://www.edbagleyblog.com
http://www.edbagleyblog.com/Sports.html